Oscar Predictions 2009

I now realize that last year’s Academy Awards spoiled me. I loved four of the Best Picture nominees (No Country for Old Men, There Will be Blood, Michael Clayton, and Juno) and disliked one (Atonement). This year, I like two of the Best Picture nominees (Frost/Nixon, Milk) am ambivalent about two (Slumdog Millionaire, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) and strongly dislike one (The Reader). In other words, this year is more typical of the Oscars. The best films of the year are rarely recognized by the Academy. I’m watching the Oscars this year in a similar manner as I watched the Super Bowl, as a disinterested spectator who doesn’t really care who wins. Nevertheless, below are my predictions of who will win as well as, more importantly, who should win:

Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Frozen River, Happy-Go-Lucky, In Bruges, Milk, Wall-E
Will Win: Milk
Should Win: In Bruges
In Bruges was the best-written film of the year (until it fell apart slightly at the end). I could listen to the dialogue all day.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Doubt
Doubt is an engaging and successful stage play that was transformed into a cinematic meditation on the relationship between faith and doubt.

Best Supporting Actress:
Nominees: Amy Adams (Doubt), Penelope Cruz (Vicky Christina Barcelona), Viola Davis (Doubt), Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Marissa Tomei (The Wrestler).
Will Win: Marissa Tomei
Should Win: Penelope Cruz
My gut tells me Marissa Tomei will win, but Penelope Cruz should win. Woody Allen’s Vicky Christina Barcelona is one of his best films in years and it owes its success largely to Cruz’s forceful performance.

Best Leading Actress:
Nominees: Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married), Angelina Jolie (Changeling), Melissa Leo (Frozen River), Meryl Streep (Doubt), Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Will Win: Kate Winslet
Should Win: Anne Hathaway
We have learned over the past couple of year that Anne Hathaway can indeed act. Who knew?

Best Supporting Actor:
Nominees: Josh Brolin (Milk), Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt), Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight), Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road)
Will Win: Heath Ledger
Should Win: Heath Ledger
What can I say that hasn’t already been said?

Best Leading Actor:
Nominees: Richard Jenkins (The Visitor), Frank Lengella (Frost/Nixon), Sean Penn (Milk), Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Will Win: Sean Penn
Should Win: Mickey Rourke
I felt every moment of Rourke’s subtle and self-reflexive performance.

Best Director:
Nominees: David Fincher, Ron Howard, Gus Van Sant, Stephen Daldry, Danny Boyle
Will Win: Danny Boyle
Should Win: Ron Howard
The Best Director nominees and Best Picture nominees line up precisely this year. I believe that the director of the Best Picture should also win Best Director. Frost/Nixon was my favorite picture of the five, so Ron Howard should win Best Director.

Best Picture:
Nominees: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader, Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Frost/Nixon
Frost/Nixon entertained me the most of these five films. I was not overwhelmed by any of them, but as long as The Reader doesn’t win I will be content.